Buenos Aires, Feb 11 (NA) – The Consumer Price Index for January, calculated using the traditional INDEC survey that is officially questioned, has once again raised doubts about the dynamics of inflation. This has led the market to overweight Boncer bonds, at least until inflation remains below the 2.0% mark. The Boncer TZX26 offers a real rate of 5% with a 140-day term, according to calculations by IOL Inversiones, which were accessed by the Noticias Argentinas news agency. The Republic of Argentina Bond, zero-coupon, adjusted by CER, is a national public bond in pesos maturing on June 30, 2026. It adjusts its principal for inflation (CER), offering protection against rising prices with a yield that has historically outpaced inflation. It is characterized by paying the entire principal at maturity. Its technical value is 1,212.00 pesos. Experts recommend holding them in a portfolio at least until June to ensure a return above inflation. These bonds are considered a defensive alternative for portfolios in pesos for the short to medium term. From CER to UVA The CER (Reference Stabilization Coefficient) is an index prepared daily by the BCRA to reflect the evolution of inflation. To do this, it takes as a reference the variation recorded in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is prepared by INDEC (National Institute of Statistics and Censuses). Inflation measured in January with the previous survey was anyway higher than in December and is the ninth consecutive month of increase. This underestimation directly impacts pensions, salaries, and allowances, which are adjusted based on a lower inflation rate than what households actually face, although for mortgage loans it moderates the update of the Acquisition Value Unit (UVA). Expectations on the rise For the coming months, the REM, which is the Central Bank's survey among economists, had already adjusted its forecasts upwards. The median now estimates that the next two inflation data points will be above 2.0% (February 2.1% and March 2.2%), only to break that 'barrier' in April. Meanwhile, the market also adjusted the inflation implicit in bond prices. Over the last two weeks, investors demanded CER-adjustable debt over fixed-rate debt, to the point that the 'break-even' inflation rate rose from 1.8% to 2.1% on average for the first half of the year. #AgenciaNA
